Federal marijuana drug trafficking cases are continuing to fall steadily in the era of state-level legalization, a new report from the U.S. Sentencing Commission (USSC) shows.
The recently published USSC 2024 Sourcebook of Federal Sentencing Statistics reveals the continuation of a trend that’s been seen over the past decade, with cannabis-related prosecutions dropping precipitously amid the state-level reform push and shifting federal enforcement priorities.
In 2024, there were roughly 500 federal cannabis trafficking cases, according to the report. That’s down from nearly 3,500 in 2015 and approximately 5,000 in 2013.
As with last year’s sourcebook, the new document doesn’t cite the exact number of federal cannabis trafficking cases in 2024, instead publishing a chart showing marijuana alongside trafficking cases for other controlled substances.
Methamphetamine trafficking cases have dominated over the past decade, the chart shows. But since last year, cases targeting fentanyl have taken over as the second most common drug trafficking target, surpassing cases concerning powder cocaine.
And while marijuana was the third most common trafficking target a decade ago, it now appears to rank below methamphetamine, powder and crack cocaine, fentanyl and heroin—the lowest rank for any drug tracked in the report.
2024 Sourcebook of Federal Sentencing Statistics, U.S. Sentencing Commission
Advocates for cannabis legalization have long argued that providing access to regulated marijuana markets for adults would drive down demand for unlicensed products, translating into fewer arrests for illicit production and sales. The latest USSC report reinforces that idea by illustrating a gradual decline in federal cannabis trafficking cases as more states have enacted legalization.
USSC’s 2024 Annual Report notes that of all drug cases last year—for manufacture, sale and transportation—marijuana accounted for about 2.6 percent.
Criminal sentences were also lowest for marijuana among all drug trafficking cases, averaging 36 months—a slight drop from the average 37 months in last year’s report.
“The average length of drug trafficking sentences decreased for three of the six major drug types: powder cocaine, heroin, and marijuana,” the report says. “The average sentence for fentanyl and crack cocaine offenses increased in 2024, while the average sentence for methamphetamine was unchanged.”
2024 Annual Report, U.S. Sentencing Commission
Notably, federal guidelines from USSC advising judges to treat prior marijuana possession offenses more leniently officially took effect in late 2023.
Federal judges have historically been directed to take into account prior convictions as aggravating factors when making sentencing decisions in new cases. But as more states have moved to legalize marijuana, advocates had pushed for the updated guidelines to make it so that a person’s cannabis record didn’t necessarily add criminal history points that could lead to enhanced sentences.
USSC also released a report that year showing that hundreds of people received more serious federal prison sentences in the prior fiscal year because of cannabis possession convictions in states that have since reformed their marijuana laws.
Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last year, meanwhile, showed that seizures of cannabis at southern border declined again in 2023, as the state marijuana legalization movement continued to expand.
Separate Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) data published last September showed that at least 200,000 people were arrested for cannabis in 2023—and simple possession again made up the vast majority of those cases. Those figures were likely understated, however, given inconsistencies in the federal data and ongoing questions about the agency’s methodology.
Meanwhile, a Maine man is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a dispute that could help clarify the boundaries of a federal law known as the Rohrabacher–Farr amendment, which protects state-legal medical marijuana activity from prosecution by the federal government.
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