As 2025 kicks off and state legislative sessions get rolling, marijuana legalization advocates are eyeing a handful of jurisdictions as key battlegrounds where they see the prospects of enacting reform this year as most likely.
Pennsylvania and Hawaii are widely seen by proponents as the most promising states for adult-use cannabis legalization in the year ahead. As for medical marijuana legalization, Kansas and the Carolinas are key states to watch. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is expecting renewed efforts to legalize the substance for both medical and adult-use.
“We need to be looking at Pennsylvania. We need to be looking at Hawaii,” said Morgan Fox, political director at the advocacy group NORML. “Those are at the top of my list. The one right after that is Wisconsin.”
The effort in Kansas could also be “interesting,” Fox added, calling it “a hard target for cannabis policy reform.” The North Carolina and South Carolina, meanwhile, are “ripe for moving medical bills,” he continued, “but there’s still a tremendous amount of opposition.”
A legalization effort is also on deck in New Hampshire this year, and advocates are pushing to add a legal and regulated sales component to an existing noncommercial legalization law in Virginia, though significant political obstacles exist in both states.
Marijuana Moment talked to advocates from NORML, Marijuana Policy Project (MPP) and the U.S. Cannabis Council (USCC), among others, to get a sense of what they’re expecting to see this year in terms of legalization efforts at the state level.
Notably, in some Republican-dominated regions, where legalization has historically lagged, observers are waiting to see whether President Donald Trump is vocal about his stance on the issue, expecting that it could sway state-level GOP votes.
“He’s been a fan of medical cannabis before,” pointed out Kevin Caldwell, Southeast legislative manager at MPP, noting that Trump also supported the failed effort to legalize adult-use marijuana at the ballot box in Florida last November.
If the incoming president says members of his party should support legalization, Caldwell said, “I think that opposition might kind of evaporate.” He added that he’s glad Louisiana’s legislative session doesn’t start until spring, at which point Trump may have taken a clearer position on the issue federally.
Caldwell also said he’s “bullish” about North Carolina creating a medical marijuana program and “cautiously optimistic” about South Carolina and Kansas. And though he doesn’t necessarily expect any new laws to be enacted this year in Louisiana, he predicted the state will see a robust push for reform in the years ahead.
“I think we will be getting some stuff done,” he said. “There’s a lot of opportunity in the South in over the next two years.”
David Culver, senior vice president of public affairs at USCC, which recently merged with National Cannabis Roundtable to form the U.S. Cannabis Roundtable, said that when Trump does take office, “we’re going to ask him to follow through on his campaign promises” in favor of reform.
“If they do end up moving cannabis to Schedule III, then I think we’re going to have a very, very different conversation,” he added. “If rescheduling happens and if Donald Trump starts speaking about cannabis reform from the White House, I think it’s going to be a very different conversation at the state level with conservatives.”
He continued, “I can’t tell you how many elected officials I’ve sat with that have made the comment to me: ‘I will not work with you on cannabis as a Schedule I drug, but I will work with you if it’s Schedule III.’”
Here’s a look at where advocates see efforts to legalize recreational or medical marijuana as most promising in 2025:
Pennsylvania
Last month a Democratic lawmaker in Pennsylvania said he expects state lawmakers to vote on legislation to legalize adult-use marijuana “sometime early spring,” though there are still open questions about what exactly a final bill will look like. One representative has floated a relatively simple bill to decriminalize personal possession, while two others plan to introduce more sweeping legislation that would legalize through a state-run system of stores.
Additionally, in September, bipartisan Reps. Aaron Kaufer (R) and Emily Kinkead (D) formally introduced a bipartisan marijuana legalization bill, alongside 15 other cosponsors.
Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is on board with ending prohibition in the Keystone state, and he said last month that he plans to once again call for the reform as part of his next budget proposal.
In short, legalization has the attention of lawmakers in Pennsylvania, and many appear open to the idea. At the same time, there’s been less progress in past legislative sessions to arrive at a consensus of what a legal cannabis market should look like.
“Pennsylvania has gotten the governor’s support, but it has never gotten through either chamber or even a committee,” noted Karen O’Keefe, director of state policies at MPP. Amid what she described as “at least a couple different visions of legalization, with bills in the first time,” she said, “a big question is what will it look like and if it can get the votes to pass.”
Earlier this month, meanwhile, the Republican chair of a key Senate committee said he expects the panel to “be one of the most active committees in the state” in the forthcoming session, saying he supports a regulated cannabis market that allows access to adults 21 and older while at the same time imposing limits meant to ensure that non-users aren’t negatively affected.
“This is a topic that we have to approach with caution,” said Sen. Dan Laughlin, “and take a lot of public input and make sure if we do this, we do it in a responsible fashion.”
Culver at USCC said that Pennsylvania is at “the top of my list for 2025” in terms of states likely to legalize, noting that the concept has support from Shapiro and House Democrats.
“I do think that the GOP is open to bipartisan reform,” he said, “but those discussions have just begun and have a very long way to go… Those that are on the ground have said repeatedly to me that they feel that they’re in a much better position with the GOP than they ever have been before.”
Hawaii
Hawaii lawmakers are expected to again consider a comprehensive cannabis legalization bill this session, with a measure forthcoming from Rep. David Tarnas (D). While Hawaii’s Senate approved a recreational marijuana bill in March, proposals to end prohibition have consistently stalled out in the House of Representatives before reaching the finish line.
Advocates think 2025 could be different, however. On top of continued support from Gov. Josh Green (D), they also see new House Speaker Nadine Nakamura (D) as a likely ally.
“The new speaker of the House is a supporter of legalization,” pointed out O’Keefe at MPP, and committee chair positions have also shifted. “The hope is that it’ll be able to get through all of the committees that it’s referred to in the House,” she said. “It had the governor’s support. It passed the Senate. So really, the only obstacle is the House.”
Culver at USCC said he’s optimistic.
“The effort last year narrowly fell short in the legislature, but I feel that Hawaii really has an opportunity in 2025.” he said. “We were so close last time around that I’m hopeful we see Hawaii go.”
Legalization supporters also expect this year’s legislation to be more palatable to reformers.
Last year’s bill “had a lot of language that we considered too authoritarian, too restrictive,” O’Keefe explained, noting that in some cases—such as a non-impaired driver who nevertheless had measurable THC in their system—the proposal would have actually increased criminal penalties. As such, MPP didn’t initially back last year’s plan, instead submitting comments and proposed amendments.
Of Tarnas’s new measure, she added, “we expect to have a bill that we actually support from the outset.”
Specifics of the forthcoming bill aren’t yet public. Tarnas, who’s sponsored prior cannabis legislation, declined to provide a draft of its bill to Marijuana Moment and did not answer questions seeking further details.
This past fall, regulators solicited proposals to assess the state’s current medical marijuana program—and also sought to estimate demand for recreational sales if the state eventually moves forward with adult-use legalization. Some read the move as a sign the regulatory agency saw a need to prepare to the potential reform.
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Wisconsin
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) is a supporter of legalizing cannabis for adults, pointing to strong backing of the reform by state residents. Republican lawmakers are less interested, though they may opt to pursue narrower medical legalization.
The state’s Senate majority leader recently said it’s possible the legislature could pass a medical marijuana legalization bill this session, though he cautioned that his chamber likely will not go along with a prior proposal from Assembly GOP leadership to establish state-run dispensaries.
Asked whether he felt a medical marijuana bill stood a chance of passage in the new year, Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu (R) said he believed it was possible. But he also reiterated that a state-run dispensary model would be a red line that the chamber wouldn’t cross.
“If a medical marijuana bill is proposed and potentially successful it’s going to have to be prescribed by a doctor, through probably a pharmacy,” he said. “But it just can’t be a backdoor to legalizing recreational marijuana—so that will be obviously the concern of our caucus.”
O’Keefe at MPP pointed out that there’s also ongoing disagreement between House and Senate leaders on what exactly a medical marijuana bill should look like.
As for the path to adult-use legalization, Evers said in a recent press conference that he will be including a proposal in his biennial budget to give citizens the right to put forward ballot initiatives. Currently there’s no citizen-led initiative process in the state.
Evers cited the fact that marijuana legalization as a standalone issue enjoys sizable bipartisan support, though the GOP-controlled legislature has repeatedly refused to act. A citizen-led initiative process would allow voters themselves to put the matter on the ballot.
With a different appetites for various reforms among different groups of stakeholders, Culver at USCC said he thinks there’s probably a better shot at medical marijuana legalization in Wisconsin than adult use—at least this year.
“But we’re just beginning these discussions,” he added. “We’re going to see how this plays out.”
North Carolina
While Caldwell at MPP said he’s “bullish” on North Carolina legalizing medical marijuana in the year ahead, one big question he has is how well the House and Senate can work together to find common ground.
“The House really wanted to go after consumable hemp products last year. The Senate wanted a medical cannabis program,” he explained. “Both of them kind of refused to work with each other on that.”
This year, he said, “I think a similar scenario may play out.”
If the two chambers can reach agreement, Caldwell believes the votes are there to pass a medical marijuana bill. But it’s also possible supporters could see a repeat of last year, when a Senate-passed legalization bill stalled because it didn’t have majority support among Republican members of the GOP-controlled House.
The House speaker said at the time that while he supported legalizing medical marijuana, he was bound by an informal rule in his chamber is that at least 37 Republican members must back any given bill in order for it to be considered on the floor.
“The reason I say 37 is our rule is that, for any bill to pass, it has to receive a majority of the members of the Republican caucus willing to vote for it on the floor,” said Speaker Tim Moore (R). “So the day I’m informed that there are 37 yes votes for that on the floor, it can certainly come to the floor at that point for a vote.”
Meanwhile, there’s one place within North Carolina’s borders where marijuana is legal: on the 57,000-acre Qualla Boundary of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians. The tribal-run Great Smoky Cannabis Co., in Cherokee, opened to all adults 21 and older in September. Members voted for legalization in a September 2023 election.
South Carolina
Last month, Republican state Sen. Tom Davis revived a medical marijuana legalization proposal that last session passed the Senate but was never taken up in the House.
As introduced, the new bill would allow patients to access medical marijuana from “therapeutic cannabis pharmacies,” which would be licensed by the state Board of Pharmacy. Individuals would need to receive a doctor’s recommendation for the treatment of certain qualifying conditions, which include several specific ailments as well as terminal illnesses and chronic diseases where opioids are the standard of care.
“It requires doctors in patient authorization, doctor supervision,” Davis has said of the legalization plan. “It requires pharmacists to dispense it. It is a very conservative bill, because that’s what South Carolinians want.”
Caldwell at MPP has said advocates will be doing “everything in our power to make this a reality in 2025.” But he noted that while legalization might pass an up-or-down vote among lawmakers, the House would only consider the legislation if GOP leaders agree to hear it.
For now, would-be patients are finding workarounds to access cannabinoids, including purchasing unregulated hemp-derived THC.
“The irony of it all is that in South Carolina, you go to a grocery store and get a [hemp]-derived THC drink product, but you can’t get medical-grade cannabis for a person with a serious ailment,” Caldwell said. “These are kind of gaping gaps in philosophy. It’s OK to have a 5-milligram [THC] drink at the grocery store, but a seriously ill patient can’t get a regulated product? I think some of those things are going to be coming to a head this year.”
Sponsor Davis, for his part has in the past called the stance of his own party, particularly as it concerns medical marijuana, “an intellectually lazy position that doesn’t even try to present medical facts as they currently exist.”
Kansas
There are some “interesting dynamics” at play in Kansas, Caldwell said. Last March, the Senate tabled a medical marijuana legalization bill, planning to revisit the issue in this year’s session. Several months later, a medical marijuana committee narrowly declined to urge the legislature to pass a legalization measure.
“I think it would not be the place of this committee to force upon the Legislature a bill when a large number—well, quite a few of the committee—I think still have a lot of questions,” Sen. Mike Thompson (R) said at the time.
Nevertheless, polls of Kansas residents show that more than 70 percent of Kansans favor legalization. “I think if we don’t come back to this in January, it will just die or get punted until next year,” outgoing Democratic Rep. Dennis “Boog” Highberger said in October.
Notably, Gov. Laura Kelly (D), who’s been supportive of medical legalization, is term-limited and will be replaced in a November 2026 election. Many in the state are eyeing Senate President Ty Masterson (R) as likely to seek the role.
Masterson says he supports legalization, telling local reporters recently that he wants to see the state adopt a limited program.
“I have consistently maintained that this is a serious topic,” Masterson told The Beacon, “which requires due diligence to determine if a better model is possible that achieves the goal of delivering real medicine while avoiding the myriad problems those other states have experienced.”
Caldwell at MPP, who said he’s “cautiously optimistic” about chances in the state this session, emphasized that like bills in North and South Carolina, the proposal in Kansas is aimed squarely on medical access.
“The bills that have been put forward, these are not wild-eyed. These are very conservative medical cannabis bills,” he said, asserting that Republicans unwilling to consider the reform are “creating an opportunity to lose elections on it.”
Meanwhile, thousands of Kansas residents are reportedly already medical marijuana patients in neighboring Missouri, crossing the border to obtain cannabis from legal dispensaries in that state.
“Kansas is definitely what I would consider to be a hard target for cannabis policy reform,” Fox at NORML said.
Virginia
Despite a short, 30-day legislative session and a governor who’s already signaled a veto, Virginia lawmakers are picking up where they left off last session in the effort to legalize and regulate retail cannabis sales in the commonwealth. Del. Paul Krizek (D) and Sen. Aaron Rouse (D) reintroduced a legal sales bill earlier this month, and it has already cleared one Senate committee.
Use, possession, and limited cultivation in the state have been legal since mid-2021, but there’s no legal way to purchase cannabis products. Last year state lawmakers passed a marijuana sales bill reflecting a compromise between Krizek and Rouse, but Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) vetoed the legislation the following month.
Krizek has acknowledged the likelihood that Youngkin would again veto the bill if it reaches his desk.
“The governor’s made it very clear that he will veto it, but nonetheless, it’s important,” he said. “It’s important we have a marketplace with safe, tested and taxed products.” Some estimates have put the size of the illicit market at roughly $3 billion.
JM Pedini, development director for NORML and executive director for Virginia NORML, said in an interview earlier this month that other, complementary cannabis bills may be forthcoming to help address the state’s lack of regulation.
“I can tell you that we will see additional legislation introduced,” they said, declining to comment further on the record.
Jason Blanchette, president of the Virginia Cannabis Association, said that while he wouldn’t be surprised by another veto from the governor, it’s important that lawmakers keep passing legal sales bills.
“We’ve got one more year of Youngkin, and then if we can get it out, get it on his desk, that’ll be two times the Democrats have gotten the exact same bill through,” he said, referring to the fact that the term-limited governor’s time in office ends early next year. “The feeling is that’ll set some very strong precedent for the next governor.”
New Hampshire
Last session, New Hampshire lawmakers nearly passed legislation last session that would have legalized and regulated marijuana for adults. The Republican-sponsored measure—one that then-Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said he’d support—had bipartisan support in both legislative chambers. But at the last minute, Democrats in the House voted narrowly to table it, taking issue with the proposal’s state-controlled franchise model.
Then in November, voters elected Republican Kelly Ayotte as governor. The former U.S. senator and state attorney general said repeatedly on the campaign trail that she would oppose efforts at adult-use legalization.
“New Hampshire is going to be difficult,” Fox at NORML said flatly. “Despite the fact that there is a significant amount of support in the State House, the new governor is not particularly supportive. We had a much better opportunity last year than we’re probably going to have this year.”
“That said,” he added, “nothing is impossible, and this is clearly something that New Hampshire residents want.”
So far several bills have nevertheless been introduced for the new session. All would legalize cannabis for adults, but two would allow only personal use—not regulated retail sales. Some lawmakers said last year that a simpler bill might be more palatable than trying to find consensus on a detailed regulatory system.
Among residents, legalization has considerable support. Granite Staters broadly favor enacting the policy change, with polling last year indicating about 65 percent support for ending prohibition. A separate poll released this summer showed 61 percent support among residents for the bill that nearly became law last year.
O’Keefe, who strongly opposed House Democrats tabling last year’s bill, didn’t mince words about this year’s prospects.
“Maybe we can get some full legalization to the governor’s desk. That’s probably it,” she said. “We probably pushed back full legalization, as was my fear, by that bill dying.”
Meanwhile, the majority leader of the House said this month that the “ship has sailed” on the issue of marijuana legalization and, in his view, it will be another ten years before New Hampshire again has a good chance to join its neighbors in enacting the reform.
In a subsequent email to Marijuana Moment, Osborne clarified that it might not be “a decade” before lawmakers again take up cannabis legalization.
“‘Decade’ was just what came out of my mouth in the moment,” he said. “What I mean is that we will not see broad marijuana legalization taken seriously as long as the current governor is in office.”
Other states
Beyond legalization efforts, observers are keeping tabs on a number of other cannabis-related reforms. In Florida, for example, voters narrowly rejected an adult-use marijuana ballot measure last November, but state lawmakers have already filed bills for the coming session that would make more incremental reforms around medical marijuana. One proposal would prevent state courts from restricting parents’ rights based solely on their status as cannabis patients, while another would protect medical marijuana patients from discrimination in government jobs by barring agencies from punishing public workers based solely on their legal use of cannabis while away from work.
Maryland lawmakers, meanwhile, are seeking to clarify rules around consumption lounges and cannabis events this session, while proposals in New York would limit THC potency in state-legal marijuana products and ban all cannabis consumption within 30 feet of children.
And in reform-averse Idaho, a bill that would impose a minimum $300 fine for adults possessing up to three ounces of cannabis is advancing.
Advocates are also closely watching developments around hemp-derived cannabinoids, which were federally legalized but not regulated under the 2018 Farm Bill. California and other states have since moved to outlaw intoxicating hemp products, which are often sold without age restrictions at gas stations and convenience stores.
“There’s going to be a battle royale in Texas,” Caldwell predicted, noting that lawmakers in both that state and the Carolinas are grappling with the issue.
“You go to a grocery store and get a [hemp]-derived THC drink product, but you can’t get medical-grade cannabis for a person with a serious ailment,” he said.
Texas Agricultural Commissioner Sid Miller wrote recently in an op-ed that the state should restrict hemp-derived products while expanding its limited, low-THC medical marijuana program. While there’s an appetite among separate groups in the capital for both changes, Caldwell and others said it will be a question of whether lawmakers can craft a plan that will win consensus.
Pedini at NORML, meanwhile, said the organization “absolutely agrees with Commissioner Miller.”
“There is an immediate need to expand the Texas Compassionate Use Program,” they said, “so that more patients qualify for access to safe, regulated products.”
Photo courtesy of California State Fair.
The post These States Are The Most Likely To Legalize Marijuana In 2025, According To Top Advocacy Groups appeared first on Marijuana Moment.
